UFC 126: My Predictions

UFC 126 is tonight on Facebook, Spike TV and finally the main event pay-per-view.  As with most UFC bouts, I'll be at BW3 in Austintown if you wanna stop down, but come early if you want a seat.

Here's the lineup card, starting with the prelims first and continuing through the main card.  I judge myself by with two points per bout:  One for the winner, the other for the type of victory.  I don't see a lot of these fights going the distance, which is good for fans.  

That being said, here are my picks for tonight:

---

Mike Pierce vs Kenny Robertson

Pierce beat Brock Larson and nearly beat John Fitch ... but he was overweight at the weigh-ins and had to cut additional weight, so that may hurt him.  I'm still thinking Pierce is the stronger fighter, I just wonder how much the additional cut will hurt him.

My pick:  Pierce, KO

---

Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero

Romero's a better wrestler, Kingsbury (9-2) has a good submission game, but a weak chin. Romero by TKO in what will probably be the biggest ground fight of the night.  Romero's 11-1 with six submissions and four KO's, so he's a finisher; five of Kingsbury's 11 fights have gone to the judges.

My Pick:  Romero, TKO.

---

Paul Taylor vs. Gabe Ruediger

Taylor knows how to kick up the excitement and I think he's going to make Rudiger wish he was back in the TUF house eating cake. He looked thin at the weigh-in whereas Taylor looked very natural. 

My Pick: Taylor, KO.

---

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs Demetrious Johnson

This fight will be streamed live on Facebook (if you're a fan or UFC on Facebook it's free) and features the debut of Kid Yamamoto, one of the most popular fighters in Japanese MMA with a record of 18-3 with one no contest.  He loves the knockout, and I see him getting KO victory 14 against an overmatched Johnson.

My Pick: Kid Yamamoto, KO.

---

Michihiro Omigawa vs Chad Mendes

This fight will be live on Spike, again for free. I see Omigawa cleaning the cage with Mendes ... Mendes has heart, is a good wrestler and undefeated, and he's been in some battles, but Omigawa's fighting for his UFC life.  He looked good at the weighins and has changed up his training routine to work his judo and striking better in the cage, which is why he's the fourth-ranked featherweight in MMA.

My Pick: Omigawa, decision

---

Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly

Also on the Spike Prelims Show, this is going to be our first real fight where the fighter who makes the first mistake will wind up asking "What happened?" after waking up, either from a Cerrone knockout or Kelly submission.

My Pick:  Cerrone, KO

---

Miguel Torres vs Antonio Banuelos

The first PPV fight of the card is going to get fans up and excited to kick off the main card. If you've never seen Torres fight, you have missed some of the most intense action from the WEC. Sure, he's little (135 pound bantumweight division), but he's a buzzsaw. Great strikes, good wrestling.  Torres (38-3) has ended 82% of his fights (9 knockouts, 23 submissions), while Benuelos has left it up to the judges in half of his 24 fights (he's 18-6 overall)

My Pick:  Torres, KO

---

Jake Ellenberger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha

I'm not much a fan of either of these guys, but one this is for sure ... they both come to throw, so this will be fast and furious.  I think Ellenberger has the edge in striking and wrestling.

My Pick: Ellenberger, KO

---

Ryan Bader vs Jon Jones

Great staredowns rarely lead to great fights, but these two have been on a collision course since Jones came to the UFC and started dominating people and Bader blew up the Ultimate Fighter house before winning Season 8.  Both fighters are unbeaten, and everyone who watched the DQ loss to Mark Hamill knows how dominant Jones was in that fight, and how he's been cleaning out the division. Bader has a 10-inch reach disadvantage to overcome, but if he does that, there's still the viscious elbows of Jones to deal with.

My Pick:  Jones, KO

---

Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin

Two guys who love to fight get to fight. To see who's better. That's MMA. It's going to be fun and it's going to be exciting. Griffin needs a win to get back on the horse; Franklin can continue his impressive streak of beating everyone NOT named Anderson Silva.

My Pick:  Franklin, KO; but we all win watching this fight.

---

Vitor Belfort vs Anderson Silva

Silva's due to fall. Sonnen exposed some holes in his game. Belfort is a tattical striker who finds the holes in everyone's game and hits you hard and fast. If his straight left catches Silva, look for a finish.  But never bet against the spider is the rule, right?

My Pick:  Belfort, KO.

Check back next week to see how I did.

UFC 111 - My Predictions

UFC 111 - St. Pierre vs Hardy is Saturday in New Jersey ... and playing on the big screens at BW3 starting at 9 with the prelims.  Two title fights, two more fights where the winner *should* get a title shot and two or three "Someone's getting KTFO'ed" fights that will be all out wars!

As always, I'll be at BW3's in Austintown to watch the fights ... the place tends to fill up so get there early if you want to sit down ... and with that, here are my predictions:

George St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy - To be the man, you have to beat the man. I don't see Hardy having any chance against to take GSP's belt in the 170-pound welterweight division. GSP, who is pound-for-pound the best MMA fighter in the game, is faster, a better wrestler, good puncher and has some bad-ass BJJ.  Hardy's got a mouth like a wrestler and hands like Marvin Hagler ... if he catches GSP it's over, so he has at least a puncher's chance, but I have to go GSP ... he might take him to the distance .... he likes doing that ... but only if Hardy can last that long.  He's never gone 25 minutes before.

Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin - Winner here gets the Interim UFC Heavyweight Title and a date with Brock Lesnar.  Carwin's never gone more than 131 seconds in 11 fights. He's knocked everyone he's fought right the hell out.  And fast.  He made Gabriel Gonzaga look soft.  But he's not a full-time fighter.  He is, however, a tremendous wrestler and Mir doesn't like being on his back.  Mir, though, is a BJJ Black Belt and loves the submission.  Will be curious to see how long this fight goes.  I see Mir winning by submission, but I also see Carwin knocking Mir's head clean off his shoulders and it landing in Lesnar's lap as he sits ringside.  This one's a toss-up ... but if I were betting I'd go Mir due to experience.

Ben Saunders vs. Jon Fitch - Fitch was supposed to fight Thiago Alves, but Alves couldn't pass his medical tests and wasn't given a license.  Saunders stepped up with 48-hour notice, so give him his credit.  If Fitch loses he can say he was training for a different fighter; if Saunders loses he can say "Hey, I found out two days ago. I did my best."  I see Fitch surviving, much like he did against GSP, but this time winning by decision.

Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek - Bocek is a good wrestler, Miller is a great wrestler.  Miller has great take-down defense and is a better striker.   Bocek has neither. I see this 30-27 on all three cards for Miller.

Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham - If the real Nate Diaz shows up, Rory Markham is done before he steps in the cage.  Sadly, the real Nate Diaz is hard to find some fights.  Diaz is moving up to welterweight, and doing so against a great striker who loves the KO punch and will stand and trade with Diaz, if that's the fight Diaz wants.  Sad to say, but if Diaz stands and bangs he'd going down ... but if he uses his takedown skills and crazy BJJ, he'll have an arm or leg of Markham's to put in the trophy case.  I think Diaz is smart enough to know to go for the submission.  Diaz, triangle choke with a repeat of the double-finger smile.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown - Matt Brown won't be taken down.  And since Almeida can't punch, he's in for a world of hurt.  Almeida's coming down in weight and whatever strength he had won't come with him.  Almedia has amazing BJJ and great takedowns, but leaves himself open for getting hit.  And Brown brings the pain.  Brown, by beatdown.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes - A long, boring fight that Pellegrino will win by getting points from takedowns and ground-and-pound.  Camoes won't know what to do ... Pellegrino by decision.

Rodney Wallace vs. Jared Hamman - Wrestler (Wallace) versus Striker (Hamman).  Striker wins by KO.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz Drwal - Palhares wins the ugly contest, but the Brazillian comes up on the losing end of this fight.  The Polish Hammer by knockout.

Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto - I'm glad this is on the prelims and hope I never have to see it.  Soto is making his UFC debut and from what I saw on YouTube knows how to wrestle and tries some submissions.  Riddle should fight at 185 ... which is what he'll weigh when the bell rings, so he'll totally control this fight for a decision victory in a very boring, very mismatched fight.  Dana White loves Riddle, so he's giving him a can to build his confidence after his TKO loss at UFC 105.

(For the record ... my UFC 110 predictions ... 4-5 in the win/loss; 5-4 in the how the fight ended ... total was 9 out of 18 possible points ... so I'm .500 winning percentage.  Last year in the few fights I forcasted, I was about .600 ... so don't use me as a betting guide by any means)

UFC 110 Predictions:

UFC 110 is in Australia for the first time ever with a loaded card.

Here's my predictions:

Cain Velasquez vs Antonio Nogiurea    
My prediction:  Nog        Submission

Michael Bisping vs Vanderlai Silva   
My prediction:  Silva        KO
 
Anthony Perosh vs Mirko "Cro Cop"   
My prediction:  Cro Cop        KO - Headkick

George Sotiropoulos vs Joe Stevenson   
My prediction:  Stevenson    Sub

Ryan Bader vs Keith Jardine
My prediction:  Jardine        KO
 
Stephen Bonnar vs Krzysztof Soszynski   
My prediction:  Bonnar        Decision

C.B. Dollaway vs Goran Reljic        
My prediction:  Reljic        Decision
 
Brian Foster vs. Chris Lytle       
My prediction:  Lytle        Submission
 
James Te Huna vs Igor Prkrajac       
My prediction:  Te Huna        KO

UFC 92 - My picks sucked

Well, I can't say I was disappointed by the event (except for Dollaway's tap that wasn't a tap that allowed him to escape the choke and then win, but Dollaway has a history of pseudo-tapping), UFC 92 delivered!

I was disappointed in my choices ... I'm not a betting man because I bet with my heart, not with my wallet. So if you're taking wagering advice from me ... buyer beware.

I was 4-6 ... victories by Hamill, Kongo, Hardonk and Evans were all I got. I was dead wrong about Mir and Jackson; Lister and Chonan let me down, Dollaway I've already mentioned, and Evenson is off my list after his knee got blown into 12 different directions by Berry's solid leg kick.

For the record ... this is one of the greatest six-week periods in MMA HISTORY:

We'll start in Japan on December 31, 2008 ... K-1 Dynamite featuring Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kiyoshi Tamura, Gesias "JZ" Calvancante vs. Joachim Hansen and Eddie Alvarez vs. Shinya Aoki (for vacant WAMMA lightweight title), eight other MMA and seven K-1 fights, including an Under-18 Four Man Tournament and featuring the first of two fights between Badr Hari vs. Alistair Overeem ... this one under K-1 Rules, the next under MMA rules. Damn.

We'll stay in Japan for Sengoku 7 in January 4th ... this MMA only card is featuring Takanori Gomi vs. Satoru Kitaoka (for vacant lightweight title) and Kazuo Misaki vs. Jorge Santiago (for vacant middleweight title) and six other matches.

Then we head back to the United States as Zuffa really loads up in January for the UFC/WEC fans:

• UFC 93 in three weeks - January 17, 2009, featuring Dan Henderson vs. Rich Franklin and the return of both Mark Coleman and Shogun Rua as they battle in the cage.
• WEC 38 on January 25th (and free on Versus) features Champ Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone (for WEC lightweight title) and the rematch of Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver.
• UFC 94 on January 31 ... the ultimate rematch: Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn for St. Pierre's 170-pound belt.
• UFC Fight Night 17 on Feb 7, 2009, and free on Spike, featuring Hermes Franca vs. Joe Lauzon and Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer.

Oh, and if that wasn't enough, on January 24, 2009, Affliction is back with Day of Reckoning featuring WAMMA heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel and Vitor Belfort vs. Matt Lindland.

Good time to be an MMA fan, eh?

UFC 92 - My picks

• Champ Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (for UFC light heavyweight title)

I like Forrest ... but I just see Rashad rushing in and beating him with the kind of punch that left Chuck Liddell in dreamland. Evans - KO - Round 2.

• Champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir (for interim UFC heavyweight title)

I've seen Nogueira take unbelievable beatings and pull out a submission (Cro-Cop in Pride 2003 Final Conflict) .. all four of his losses are by decision. He's never been stopped. Mir is a mixed bag of up and down, good and bad. Mir has always relied on his BJJ skills ... he's never been matched with anyone better than him in BJJ before ... easy pick: Nogueira - Sub - Round 3.

• C.B. Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio

I will give Massenzio $20 if he knocks out DULL-away. No, $25.

• Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva

I went back and watched both of their previous battles (Pride Final Conflict 2003 and Pride 28) ... and forgot how good the fights were, with amazing back and forth action. However, they both ended the same: Rampage was left beaten crushed demolished destroyed by The Axe Murderer. The 2003 fight had Jackson eating 17 knees to end the fight; but the Pride 28 one is, without a doubt, one of the most vicious knockouts in MMA lore ... Silva left Jackson draped over the ropes, unconscious, after landing five solid knees to the cranium.

• Mustafa Al-Turk vs. Cheick Kongo

Al-Turk hasn't impressed me ... Kongo took the best Cro-Cop could dish out and won a unanimous decision in what was supposed to be Mirko's coming out party. Al-Turk's only notable victory is a submission due to strikes over Mark Kerr ... but the 2007 Mark Kerr ... not the Smashing Machine. Kongo - Decision - Boring as hell fight.

• Dean Lister vs. Yushin Okami - Lister, submission; I like Okami, but Lister's a master.

• Antoni Hardonk vs. Mike Wessel - Hardonk, knockout

• Reese Andy vs. Matt Hamill - Hamill will murderize Andy right in his face.

• Brad Blackburn vs. Ryo Chonan - I never bet against Ryo Chonan. Dude just finds ways to win.

• Pat Berry vs. Dan Evensen- Evensen. Knockout.

Spanning the Globe ...

Another edition of News and Notes:

• UFC 91 was amazing ... I was 8-1 ... the only one I guess wrong was the the only fight that went to a decision. And that was a close one. UFC 92 (December 27th) will be a barn-burner: Forest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (the dude that knocked Chuck Liddell out for 10 minutes) for the light-heavyweight title; Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the right to fight Brock Lesnar to unifiy the heavyweight title (Nogueira has the interim belt, Lesnar knocked Randy Couture out Saturday); Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton Jackson III (Silva won their two PRIDE fights with stunning, highlight-reel knockouts); Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister ... and six more bouts, too. Oh, and before that, we have the UFC Fights For The Troops on December 10 (Josh Koscheck vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida) and the Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale on December 13.

• The fire that's raging in Southern California is threatening the home of lots of regular people, as well as celebs, including Snoop Dog. I'm gonna say is there's no way the fire will be contained if his house goes up in smoke ... the firefighters will be too stoned ... and hungry ... to work the hoses.

• Those crazy political Aussies are at it again: I present you the Australian Sex Party.

• Watch out for Chickenfoot ... you won't believe who's in this band!

• Is it possible to name yourself the voice of your generation? No, Kayne West, it's not.

• Finally saw Zach and Miri Make A Porno on Sunday (Thanks Carolyn!)... my sides hurt from laughing. Seriously. This is some funny shit ... and again, Jason Mewes gets fully naked for the enjoyment of all the women. And he's just as funny sober as he ever was stoned. Some great quotable lines:

• "I hate you ebony and ivory motherfuckers!"
• "Shut your mouth or I'm gonna fuck it. "
• "You give a guy anything, even a fucking sample of Jergens and he can find a way to fuck it. You should've seen me, I was like a dirty MacGyver."
• "Everybody wants to see anybody fuck. I hate Rosie O'Donnell but if someone said they had a tape of Rosie getting fucked stupid I'd be 'why the fuck aren't we watching that right now?'"

And you can go to the website and make your own porn star ID:

UFC 91 - Picks

UFC 91 is Saturday from Las Vegas and features one must see, one don't miss and one don't blink ... including the fight that millions and millions have been waiting for. As always, I'll be at BW3's in Worthington ... feel free to come down if you're local. Music trivia starts at 9 for anyone brave enough to challenge me (hear that, Lia?) ... fights start at ten.

UFC 88 I was 6-3; UFC 90 I was 6-4 ... so let's see how I do with these predictions:

Randy Couture (16-8) vs. Brock Lesnar (2-1) for the UFC heavyweight title.

Brock Lesner is a beast. 6'3" 265 pounds (which is the max for the division ... he has to cut weight to make it to that) ... and an all-world wrestler: Lesnar finished his amateur career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Conference Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion with a record of 106-5 overall in four years of college. He wrestled professionally with the WWE and New Japan, tried out and nearly made the final roster for the Minnesota Vikings, then started training MMA. His last match was against Heath Herring in August ... watch for the monster punch nine seconds in.

Randy Couture, however, is the beast master. Yes, he's giving up 40-50 pounds in size, and 14 years in age, but he's a master at finding holes in his opponent and finding ways to win. As far as the wrestling ... he's also won multiple amateur wrestling awards. Couture won a state championship during his senior year of high school, then served in the U.S. Army from 1982–1988. He was a three-time Olympic team alternate (1988, 1992 and 1996); a semifinalist at the 2000 Olympic Trials; a three-time National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division-I All-American and a two-time NCAA Division-I runner-up at Oklahoma State University. In 1992 he was the Division-1 runner up at 190 pounds coming in second after Smashing Machine Mark Kerr.

Brock has size, strength, explosive speed, and hands so big they had to make gloves especially for him ... nothing fit. Randy has skill, multiple ways to win, the best dirty boxing in the world, decent submission skills and years of experience. Randy's also not fought in 14 months ... Brock's last fight was August, where he wailed on Herring for 15 minutes.

Yeah ... the beast versus the beast master. I've bet against Couture before. I've been wrong, both times (Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia). Lesnar is huge, fast, strong, and as of yet, untested. All that being said ... I'm going with Lesnar. I just don't see how Randy can do it, again.
PICK: Lesnar, knockout, second round.

---

Kenny Florian (10-3) vs. Joe Stevenson
This is my don't miss fight. The reach, striking and Jiu-Jitsu of Florian versus the wrestling and power of Stevenson. Florian is 3" taller, punches with precision, and has cardio for days. Stevenson is a tremendous wrestler, decent on the ground and has wicked elbows from the top or bottom. Tough fight for both, but for different reasons. Florian has won his last five; Stevenson has won five of six, the only loss being to lightweight champion B.J. Penn. Both have great submission skills ... so it's a wash in a lot of ways ... which means it will be a great fight.
PICK: Florian, submisssion, third round.

---

Gabriel Gonzaga (9-3) vs. Josh Hendricks (15-4-1)
Gonzaga has great Jiu-Jitsu. Hendricks is a wrestler. Gonzaga can strike. Hendricks is a wrestler. Then again, as we learned from Junior dos Santos and Seth Petruzelli, anyone can land a good knockout punch. This is my don't miss fight of the night.
PICK: Gonzaga, submission, second round.

---

Demian Maia (8-0) vs. Nate Quarry (10-2)
Maia has amazing ground skills and is world-class in Jiu-Jitsu. Quarry has great striking. I see Maia (again) pulling guard and taking the win. Quickly. Rumor has it winner will get fed to Anderson Silva, where he'll get demolished. Quickly.
PICK: Maia, submission, first round.

---

Dustin Hazelett (11-4) vs. Tamdan McCrory (9-1)
Hazelett has a great ground game. McCrory doesn't. McCrory's taller, and can strike, but isn't experienced enough in defending submissions. His height will be his disadvantage, as Hazelett will find and arm, or leg, and tweak it.
PICK: Hazelett, submission, first round.

---

Jorge Gurgel (12-4) vs. Aaron Riley (26-10-1)
Gurgel loves to throw knees, and strike, but uses them to set up the guillotine choke. Riley likes to break arms or knock you the fuck out ... just ask Michihiro Omigawa in Pride - Bushido 7. DAMN. Dropped like a bad habit.
PICK: Riley, knockout, first round.

---

Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos (11-2)
dos Anjos has won 9 in a row using a variety of submissions ... arm bar, kimura, rear naked choke, arm lock ... so he's looking to submit. Stephens likes the KO. His striking is superb and he went the distance (in a loss) with Spencer Fisher, so he's good at avoiding the submission game. dos Anjos, however, is a much better ground fighter than Fisher. Also, dos Anjos has never been knocked out ... but I see that streak ending.
PICK: Stephens, knockout, first round.

---

Mark Bocek (5-2) vs. Alvin Robinson (9-3)
Robinson was choked out by Nate Diaz ... but so have a lot of others. Robinso has choked out a few, too ... he likes the Monte de Leon. Bocek has lost to both Frankie Egars and Mac Danzig, so one more loss and he's likely gone from the UFC for a bit, if not forever. I don't see how Bocek can withstand the submission game of Robinson.
PICK: Robinson, rear naked choke, second round.

---

Matt Brown (7-7) vs. Ryan Thomas (9-2)
Matt Brown is either on or off. He should have beaten Dong Hyan Kim, but lost a split decision. He said he's learned not to let it go to the judges and he will bring it this fight. Ryan Thomas is a great ground fighter; Brown likes to stand and bang. If Thomas can take Brown down, it's his game ... but I see Brown going for the kill standing.
PICK: Brown, because he's from Columbus, knockout, first round.

UFC 88 - Preview & Pics

My UFC Preview is back with a vengeance. The Ultimate Fighting Championships invade Atlanta for UFC 88. Here's my take on how the ten scheduled fights are going to play out. Actual mileage may vary.

Chuck Liddell (21-5-0) vs Rashad Evans (16-0-1)
Three of Liddell's five losses ended with him looking up at the lights, knocked the fuck out, due to his desire to stand and throw. Evans has three victories by knockout. Chuck has 13. I see leather. Lots of leather. I see Rashad getting dazed and confused by the counterpuncher.
Liddell by knockout, second round.

Rich Franklin (25-3-0) vs Matt Hamill ( 6-1-0)
Rich Franklin is at a crossroads. He's been demolished by middleweight champ Anderson Silva, twice, in brutal fashion. There's no way he's going to dethrone Forrest Griffen at light heavyweight, and he;s too big to go down to welterweight. So he's left to languish high on the card but not at the top. Matt Hamill is still a work in progress. He's strong, like Silva, and will manhandle Franklin, but can he take a punch? That's the real worry, but not that big of a worry. Franklin is fighting for paychecks now, Hamill is hungrier.
Hamill by decision.

Karo Parisyan (26-5-0) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2-0)
Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a stud. Karo will need a full tank and a better gameplan than he's had in his last couple of outings (loss to Thiago Alves via KO and a decision win against Ryo Chonan). While I don't see Yoshida slapping the anaconda choke on Parisyan like he did with Jon "War Hammer" Koppenhaver, leaving the TUF alum passed out on the cage floor at UFC 84, I do see a great match between the judo of Parisyan and the unconventional style of Yoshida.
Yoshida with his wicked elbows in the third round.

Dan Henderson (22-7-0) vs Rousimar Palhares (17-1-0)
I'm a huge Dan Henderson fan. Palhares has mad ju-jitsu and put a clinic on against Ivan Salaverry, going from a left-armed choke to a right-armed choke to the arm bar that retired Salaverry ... all in 2:36. He's fast, and if he can get Henderson down, and keep him there, it's over. Henderson, however, is a world-class greco-roman wrestler (was in two Olympics and and has won countless international events), so he's difficult to take down. Didn't stop Anderson Silva though. My heart is with Henderson, but my head isn't.
Palhares by submission, third round.

Martin Kampmann (13-1-0) vs Nate Marquardt (29-8-2)
This one will bring down the boos but could be the technical match of the night. Both are submission specialists but Marquardt has the more impressive list of victims including Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Joe Doerksen, Ivan Salaverry and a half-dozen submission wins in Pancrase bouts, including breaking the arm of Kazou Misaki 29 seconds into the bout.
Marquardt via compound fracture in the second round.

Thiago Tavares (17-2-0) vs Kurt Pellegrino (17-4-0)
Both fighters are 1-2 in thier last three bouts. Tavares was knocked out by Matt Wiman at UFC 85; Pellegrino tapped out to Nathan Diaz's triangle choke. Recovering from a your first knockout is always tough.
Pellegrino, submission, first round.

Tim Boetsch (7-2-0) vs Michael Patt (15-2-0)
Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (look at him and you'll see why) needs to win or he's likely done in the UFC after a loss to Matt Hamill (KO, round 2). Patt is making his UFC debut and has beaten a list of no-names in a series of unknown and failed promotions (Bodog, VFC, ETC).
Boetsch by KO, first round.

Dong Hyun Kim (10-0-1) vs Matt Brown (10-6-0)
Dong Hyun Kim is a star in the making and will impress. There's a huge thread on Sherdog about how bad this beating is going to be. Despite Matt Brown being on TUF, and a nice guy who hung out at BW3's in Columbus during the season to watch the show, in the cage he is a mystery. He looks so good one minute, then his brain is beamed into space and he's a human punching bag for the next several. Then he recovers. And looks great. Apply, lather, rinse, repeat. His fight against Amir Sadollah in the semi-finals of The Ultimate Fighter showed that, but he was fighting with a very injured shoulder. Regardless ... five of Brown's six losses are via submission, but there's not much for him to fear from Kim in that respect ... Kim has one. Kim likes to stand and throw, which Brown likes as well, but Matt needs to watch out for the slam that Kim used to knock out Hasegawa (who was the champ in a non-title bout) at DEEP 31 (YouTube brings the pain at the 9:40 mark!) and his fast, furious and heavy hands ... look at the beating he delivers AFTER the slam and the diving save the ref makes. That was a statement.
Kim via strikes in the second round.

Jason Lambert (23-8-0) vs Jason MacDonald (21-10-0)
I love MacDonald for exposing Ed Herman, but hate his nickname (The Athlete). And he lost to Kalib Starnes. Jason Lambert, The Punisher, has a much better nickname, but has lost three of his last four fights ... and was punished and knocked out. But he KTFO'd Renato Sobral and Terry Martin, so he has the power to do it against MacDonald. This is a tough one to call, but MacDonald is better at submissions (16 of his wins).
MacDonald, submission, in the second.

Roan Carneiro (12-7-0) vs Ryo "Piranha" Chonan (14-8-0)
I love Ryo Chonan, if for nothing else than for the beating he took from Anderson Silva before submitting him with an AMAZING flying sccissor heel hook at Pride Shockwave 2004. Check it out ... this is beautiful, and from the speed of the tapout and the look on Silva's face, pretty painful, too. Roan Carneiro is at a make or break stage with the UFC. He's 2-2 having lost to Jon Fitch and Kevin Burns, both via submission.
Chonan, with PRIDE, submission, first round.

Check back Monday to see how well I did, or join me Saturday at UFC 88 as I watch from BW3's on Campus View. UFC starts at 10; Music Trivia starts at 8:30.