UFC 126: My Predictions

UFC 126 is tonight on Facebook, Spike TV and finally the main event pay-per-view.  As with most UFC bouts, I'll be at BW3 in Austintown if you wanna stop down, but come early if you want a seat.

Here's the lineup card, starting with the prelims first and continuing through the main card.  I judge myself by with two points per bout:  One for the winner, the other for the type of victory.  I don't see a lot of these fights going the distance, which is good for fans.  

That being said, here are my picks for tonight:

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Mike Pierce vs Kenny Robertson

Pierce beat Brock Larson and nearly beat John Fitch ... but he was overweight at the weigh-ins and had to cut additional weight, so that may hurt him.  I'm still thinking Pierce is the stronger fighter, I just wonder how much the additional cut will hurt him.

My pick:  Pierce, KO

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Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero

Romero's a better wrestler, Kingsbury (9-2) has a good submission game, but a weak chin. Romero by TKO in what will probably be the biggest ground fight of the night.  Romero's 11-1 with six submissions and four KO's, so he's a finisher; five of Kingsbury's 11 fights have gone to the judges.

My Pick:  Romero, TKO.

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Paul Taylor vs. Gabe Ruediger

Taylor knows how to kick up the excitement and I think he's going to make Rudiger wish he was back in the TUF house eating cake. He looked thin at the weigh-in whereas Taylor looked very natural. 

My Pick: Taylor, KO.

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Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs Demetrious Johnson

This fight will be streamed live on Facebook (if you're a fan or UFC on Facebook it's free) and features the debut of Kid Yamamoto, one of the most popular fighters in Japanese MMA with a record of 18-3 with one no contest.  He loves the knockout, and I see him getting KO victory 14 against an overmatched Johnson.

My Pick: Kid Yamamoto, KO.

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Michihiro Omigawa vs Chad Mendes

This fight will be live on Spike, again for free. I see Omigawa cleaning the cage with Mendes ... Mendes has heart, is a good wrestler and undefeated, and he's been in some battles, but Omigawa's fighting for his UFC life.  He looked good at the weighins and has changed up his training routine to work his judo and striking better in the cage, which is why he's the fourth-ranked featherweight in MMA.

My Pick: Omigawa, decision

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Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly

Also on the Spike Prelims Show, this is going to be our first real fight where the fighter who makes the first mistake will wind up asking "What happened?" after waking up, either from a Cerrone knockout or Kelly submission.

My Pick:  Cerrone, KO

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Miguel Torres vs Antonio Banuelos

The first PPV fight of the card is going to get fans up and excited to kick off the main card. If you've never seen Torres fight, you have missed some of the most intense action from the WEC. Sure, he's little (135 pound bantumweight division), but he's a buzzsaw. Great strikes, good wrestling.  Torres (38-3) has ended 82% of his fights (9 knockouts, 23 submissions), while Benuelos has left it up to the judges in half of his 24 fights (he's 18-6 overall)

My Pick:  Torres, KO

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Jake Ellenberger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha

I'm not much a fan of either of these guys, but one this is for sure ... they both come to throw, so this will be fast and furious.  I think Ellenberger has the edge in striking and wrestling.

My Pick: Ellenberger, KO

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Ryan Bader vs Jon Jones

Great staredowns rarely lead to great fights, but these two have been on a collision course since Jones came to the UFC and started dominating people and Bader blew up the Ultimate Fighter house before winning Season 8.  Both fighters are unbeaten, and everyone who watched the DQ loss to Mark Hamill knows how dominant Jones was in that fight, and how he's been cleaning out the division. Bader has a 10-inch reach disadvantage to overcome, but if he does that, there's still the viscious elbows of Jones to deal with.

My Pick:  Jones, KO

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Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin

Two guys who love to fight get to fight. To see who's better. That's MMA. It's going to be fun and it's going to be exciting. Griffin needs a win to get back on the horse; Franklin can continue his impressive streak of beating everyone NOT named Anderson Silva.

My Pick:  Franklin, KO; but we all win watching this fight.

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Vitor Belfort vs Anderson Silva

Silva's due to fall. Sonnen exposed some holes in his game. Belfort is a tattical striker who finds the holes in everyone's game and hits you hard and fast. If his straight left catches Silva, look for a finish.  But never bet against the spider is the rule, right?

My Pick:  Belfort, KO.

Check back next week to see how I did.

UFC 92 - My picks sucked

Well, I can't say I was disappointed by the event (except for Dollaway's tap that wasn't a tap that allowed him to escape the choke and then win, but Dollaway has a history of pseudo-tapping), UFC 92 delivered!

I was disappointed in my choices ... I'm not a betting man because I bet with my heart, not with my wallet. So if you're taking wagering advice from me ... buyer beware.

I was 4-6 ... victories by Hamill, Kongo, Hardonk and Evans were all I got. I was dead wrong about Mir and Jackson; Lister and Chonan let me down, Dollaway I've already mentioned, and Evenson is off my list after his knee got blown into 12 different directions by Berry's solid leg kick.

For the record ... this is one of the greatest six-week periods in MMA HISTORY:

We'll start in Japan on December 31, 2008 ... K-1 Dynamite featuring Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Kiyoshi Tamura, Gesias "JZ" Calvancante vs. Joachim Hansen and Eddie Alvarez vs. Shinya Aoki (for vacant WAMMA lightweight title), eight other MMA and seven K-1 fights, including an Under-18 Four Man Tournament and featuring the first of two fights between Badr Hari vs. Alistair Overeem ... this one under K-1 Rules, the next under MMA rules. Damn.

We'll stay in Japan for Sengoku 7 in January 4th ... this MMA only card is featuring Takanori Gomi vs. Satoru Kitaoka (for vacant lightweight title) and Kazuo Misaki vs. Jorge Santiago (for vacant middleweight title) and six other matches.

Then we head back to the United States as Zuffa really loads up in January for the UFC/WEC fans:

• UFC 93 in three weeks - January 17, 2009, featuring Dan Henderson vs. Rich Franklin and the return of both Mark Coleman and Shogun Rua as they battle in the cage.
• WEC 38 on January 25th (and free on Versus) features Champ Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone (for WEC lightweight title) and the rematch of Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver.
• UFC 94 on January 31 ... the ultimate rematch: Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn for St. Pierre's 170-pound belt.
• UFC Fight Night 17 on Feb 7, 2009, and free on Spike, featuring Hermes Franca vs. Joe Lauzon and Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer.

Oh, and if that wasn't enough, on January 24, 2009, Affliction is back with Day of Reckoning featuring WAMMA heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski, Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel and Vitor Belfort vs. Matt Lindland.

Good time to be an MMA fan, eh?

UFC 92 - My picks

• Champ Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (for UFC light heavyweight title)

I like Forrest ... but I just see Rashad rushing in and beating him with the kind of punch that left Chuck Liddell in dreamland. Evans - KO - Round 2.

• Champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir (for interim UFC heavyweight title)

I've seen Nogueira take unbelievable beatings and pull out a submission (Cro-Cop in Pride 2003 Final Conflict) .. all four of his losses are by decision. He's never been stopped. Mir is a mixed bag of up and down, good and bad. Mir has always relied on his BJJ skills ... he's never been matched with anyone better than him in BJJ before ... easy pick: Nogueira - Sub - Round 3.

• C.B. Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio

I will give Massenzio $20 if he knocks out DULL-away. No, $25.

• Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva

I went back and watched both of their previous battles (Pride Final Conflict 2003 and Pride 28) ... and forgot how good the fights were, with amazing back and forth action. However, they both ended the same: Rampage was left beaten crushed demolished destroyed by The Axe Murderer. The 2003 fight had Jackson eating 17 knees to end the fight; but the Pride 28 one is, without a doubt, one of the most vicious knockouts in MMA lore ... Silva left Jackson draped over the ropes, unconscious, after landing five solid knees to the cranium.

• Mustafa Al-Turk vs. Cheick Kongo

Al-Turk hasn't impressed me ... Kongo took the best Cro-Cop could dish out and won a unanimous decision in what was supposed to be Mirko's coming out party. Al-Turk's only notable victory is a submission due to strikes over Mark Kerr ... but the 2007 Mark Kerr ... not the Smashing Machine. Kongo - Decision - Boring as hell fight.

• Dean Lister vs. Yushin Okami - Lister, submission; I like Okami, but Lister's a master.

• Antoni Hardonk vs. Mike Wessel - Hardonk, knockout

• Reese Andy vs. Matt Hamill - Hamill will murderize Andy right in his face.

• Brad Blackburn vs. Ryo Chonan - I never bet against Ryo Chonan. Dude just finds ways to win.

• Pat Berry vs. Dan Evensen- Evensen. Knockout.

Spanning the Globe ...

Another edition of News and Notes:

• UFC 91 was amazing ... I was 8-1 ... the only one I guess wrong was the the only fight that went to a decision. And that was a close one. UFC 92 (December 27th) will be a barn-burner: Forest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans (the dude that knocked Chuck Liddell out for 10 minutes) for the light-heavyweight title; Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the right to fight Brock Lesnar to unifiy the heavyweight title (Nogueira has the interim belt, Lesnar knocked Randy Couture out Saturday); Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton Jackson III (Silva won their two PRIDE fights with stunning, highlight-reel knockouts); Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister ... and six more bouts, too. Oh, and before that, we have the UFC Fights For The Troops on December 10 (Josh Koscheck vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida) and the Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale on December 13.

• The fire that's raging in Southern California is threatening the home of lots of regular people, as well as celebs, including Snoop Dog. I'm gonna say is there's no way the fire will be contained if his house goes up in smoke ... the firefighters will be too stoned ... and hungry ... to work the hoses.

• Those crazy political Aussies are at it again: I present you the Australian Sex Party.

• Watch out for Chickenfoot ... you won't believe who's in this band!

• Is it possible to name yourself the voice of your generation? No, Kayne West, it's not.

• Finally saw Zach and Miri Make A Porno on Sunday (Thanks Carolyn!)... my sides hurt from laughing. Seriously. This is some funny shit ... and again, Jason Mewes gets fully naked for the enjoyment of all the women. And he's just as funny sober as he ever was stoned. Some great quotable lines:

• "I hate you ebony and ivory motherfuckers!"
• "Shut your mouth or I'm gonna fuck it. "
• "You give a guy anything, even a fucking sample of Jergens and he can find a way to fuck it. You should've seen me, I was like a dirty MacGyver."
• "Everybody wants to see anybody fuck. I hate Rosie O'Donnell but if someone said they had a tape of Rosie getting fucked stupid I'd be 'why the fuck aren't we watching that right now?'"

And you can go to the website and make your own porn star ID:

UFC 91 - Picks

UFC 91 is Saturday from Las Vegas and features one must see, one don't miss and one don't blink ... including the fight that millions and millions have been waiting for. As always, I'll be at BW3's in Worthington ... feel free to come down if you're local. Music trivia starts at 9 for anyone brave enough to challenge me (hear that, Lia?) ... fights start at ten.

UFC 88 I was 6-3; UFC 90 I was 6-4 ... so let's see how I do with these predictions:

Randy Couture (16-8) vs. Brock Lesnar (2-1) for the UFC heavyweight title.

Brock Lesner is a beast. 6'3" 265 pounds (which is the max for the division ... he has to cut weight to make it to that) ... and an all-world wrestler: Lesnar finished his amateur career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Conference Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion with a record of 106-5 overall in four years of college. He wrestled professionally with the WWE and New Japan, tried out and nearly made the final roster for the Minnesota Vikings, then started training MMA. His last match was against Heath Herring in August ... watch for the monster punch nine seconds in.

Randy Couture, however, is the beast master. Yes, he's giving up 40-50 pounds in size, and 14 years in age, but he's a master at finding holes in his opponent and finding ways to win. As far as the wrestling ... he's also won multiple amateur wrestling awards. Couture won a state championship during his senior year of high school, then served in the U.S. Army from 1982–1988. He was a three-time Olympic team alternate (1988, 1992 and 1996); a semifinalist at the 2000 Olympic Trials; a three-time National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division-I All-American and a two-time NCAA Division-I runner-up at Oklahoma State University. In 1992 he was the Division-1 runner up at 190 pounds coming in second after Smashing Machine Mark Kerr.

Brock has size, strength, explosive speed, and hands so big they had to make gloves especially for him ... nothing fit. Randy has skill, multiple ways to win, the best dirty boxing in the world, decent submission skills and years of experience. Randy's also not fought in 14 months ... Brock's last fight was August, where he wailed on Herring for 15 minutes.

Yeah ... the beast versus the beast master. I've bet against Couture before. I've been wrong, both times (Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia). Lesnar is huge, fast, strong, and as of yet, untested. All that being said ... I'm going with Lesnar. I just don't see how Randy can do it, again.
PICK: Lesnar, knockout, second round.

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Kenny Florian (10-3) vs. Joe Stevenson
This is my don't miss fight. The reach, striking and Jiu-Jitsu of Florian versus the wrestling and power of Stevenson. Florian is 3" taller, punches with precision, and has cardio for days. Stevenson is a tremendous wrestler, decent on the ground and has wicked elbows from the top or bottom. Tough fight for both, but for different reasons. Florian has won his last five; Stevenson has won five of six, the only loss being to lightweight champion B.J. Penn. Both have great submission skills ... so it's a wash in a lot of ways ... which means it will be a great fight.
PICK: Florian, submisssion, third round.

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Gabriel Gonzaga (9-3) vs. Josh Hendricks (15-4-1)
Gonzaga has great Jiu-Jitsu. Hendricks is a wrestler. Gonzaga can strike. Hendricks is a wrestler. Then again, as we learned from Junior dos Santos and Seth Petruzelli, anyone can land a good knockout punch. This is my don't miss fight of the night.
PICK: Gonzaga, submission, second round.

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Demian Maia (8-0) vs. Nate Quarry (10-2)
Maia has amazing ground skills and is world-class in Jiu-Jitsu. Quarry has great striking. I see Maia (again) pulling guard and taking the win. Quickly. Rumor has it winner will get fed to Anderson Silva, where he'll get demolished. Quickly.
PICK: Maia, submission, first round.

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Dustin Hazelett (11-4) vs. Tamdan McCrory (9-1)
Hazelett has a great ground game. McCrory doesn't. McCrory's taller, and can strike, but isn't experienced enough in defending submissions. His height will be his disadvantage, as Hazelett will find and arm, or leg, and tweak it.
PICK: Hazelett, submission, first round.

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Jorge Gurgel (12-4) vs. Aaron Riley (26-10-1)
Gurgel loves to throw knees, and strike, but uses them to set up the guillotine choke. Riley likes to break arms or knock you the fuck out ... just ask Michihiro Omigawa in Pride - Bushido 7. DAMN. Dropped like a bad habit.
PICK: Riley, knockout, first round.

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Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos (11-2)
dos Anjos has won 9 in a row using a variety of submissions ... arm bar, kimura, rear naked choke, arm lock ... so he's looking to submit. Stephens likes the KO. His striking is superb and he went the distance (in a loss) with Spencer Fisher, so he's good at avoiding the submission game. dos Anjos, however, is a much better ground fighter than Fisher. Also, dos Anjos has never been knocked out ... but I see that streak ending.
PICK: Stephens, knockout, first round.

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Mark Bocek (5-2) vs. Alvin Robinson (9-3)
Robinson was choked out by Nate Diaz ... but so have a lot of others. Robinso has choked out a few, too ... he likes the Monte de Leon. Bocek has lost to both Frankie Egars and Mac Danzig, so one more loss and he's likely gone from the UFC for a bit, if not forever. I don't see how Bocek can withstand the submission game of Robinson.
PICK: Robinson, rear naked choke, second round.

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Matt Brown (7-7) vs. Ryan Thomas (9-2)
Matt Brown is either on or off. He should have beaten Dong Hyan Kim, but lost a split decision. He said he's learned not to let it go to the judges and he will bring it this fight. Ryan Thomas is a great ground fighter; Brown likes to stand and bang. If Thomas can take Brown down, it's his game ... but I see Brown going for the kill standing.
PICK: Brown, because he's from Columbus, knockout, first round.

UFC 90: My picks

As always, I'll be at BW3's in Worthington (Crosswoods area) for the Ultimate Fighting Championships presentation of UFC 90. Granted, due to the Ohio State Buckeyes taking on Penn State that night, UFC is relegated to the small screens, and sound will be on the game ... but my connections tell me when the OSU game is over, the big screens will go to UFC as will the sound.

So with that in mind ... here are my picks and predictions for UFC 90:

Anderson Silva (22-4-0) vs. Patrick Cote (14-4-0)

Almost all MMA practitioners have one preferred style they've mastered. The great ones are masters of multiple styles. Anderson Silva may be the greatest of them all. He has so many ways to beat you: Lightning quick hands full of knockout power (ask James Irvin or Chris Leban); knees of death (ask Rich Franklin, twice, and then look at his rearranged nose); quick and sick submissions (ask Dan Henderson, if his larynx wasn't too crushed by that choke). Silva's at the top of every pound-for-pound best fighter ever, and will hold both the 185-pound and 205-pound titles in 2009. Cote is a tough fighter who once took all Tito Ortiz could give (back when Tito was a force, before his back injury) at UFC 50, knocking Ortiz down, but coming up short on the scorecards. Cote has a chance, stranger things have happened, but nobody's on Anderson Silva's level right now.

My Pick: Silva, knockout. Round One.

Josh Koscheck (13-2-0) vs. Thiago Alves (21-4-0)

I don't like Josh Koscheck. I don't know why. He's always entertaining, always brings everything he has and always fights a hell of a fight. Thiago Alves is better in everything but wrestling. I don't like Josh Koscheck. Nobody comes better prepared. Ask Diego Sanchez. But Alves is a strong striker and has excellent ground skills. This is more of a tossup fight, but sometimes you just gotta go with your heart. I don't like Josh Koscheck. But I respect him. And I'm picking him here. There's no quit in that cat.

My Pick: Koscheck, decision.

Rich Clementi (40-12-1) vs. Gray Maynard (6-0-1)

Gray Maynard will win this if it stays standing, or if he can stay on top of Clementi on the ground. Maynard's not good off his back, Clementi is. But Maynard has given Frankie Edgar his only loss; and was a huge underdog in doing so.

My Pick: Maynard, decision.

Fabricio Werdum (11-3-1) vs. Junior Dos Santos (6-1-0)

Werdum is the fifth man in the four-man heavyweight tournament and will face, eventually, the heavyweight title holder in 2009. (Lesner v Couture 11/15; Nog v Mir 12/27, winners to meet in March 2009, maybe in Columbus!). Both Werdum and dos Santos are blackbelts at BJJ, but Werdum is a better wrestler, "Cigano" dos Santos is a knockout artist, and Brazil's current kickboxing heavyweight champ. Werdum's never been knocked out ... all three of Werdum's losses were by decision, including going the distance with Andrei Arlovski, Big Nog, and hard hitting Sergei Kharitonov, one of my favorite PRIDE fighters.

My Pick: Werdum, decision.

Sean Sherk (36-3-1) vs. Tyson Griffin (12-1-0)

Perhaps the hardest fight on the card to pick, because Sherk is a cardio freak; Griffin is a powerhouse. Griffin is used to going the distance and against tough guys (Clay Guida, Frankie Edgar, Thiago Tavares, Gleison Tibau, Marcus Aurelio), winning a ll but the Edgar fight. Sherk is back after a drug suspension he denies, followed by a beat-down by BJ Penn.

My Pick: Griffin, Knockout. Round 2.

* Thales Leites (13-1-0) vs. Drew McFedries (7-4-0)

Leites is a submission artist who has a decent standup game, but prefers the triangle choke and armbar. McFedries is one of those guys who has sick power and skill but sometimes leaves it in the locker room. He looked outclassed on the ground by Mike Massenzio and Martin Kampmann in submission losses, yet holds great knockouts of Jordan Radev (33 seconds) and Marvin Eastman (64 seconds). If Leites can avoid the big punch and take this to the ground, it's his fight to lose.

My Pick: Leites, submission. Round 1.

* Spencer Fisher (22-4-0) vs. Shannon Gugerty (11-2-0)

Spencer Fisher will not quit. Ever. Melvin "Cocaine" Guillard won't quit ... drugs. I was looking forward to seeing Fisher stand and trade with Guillard, but Guillard's probation violation prevented that. Instead we get Gugerty, who will get beaten like he stole Melvin's stash. Expect a lot of dirty boxing from Fisher and attempted submissions from Gugerty, if he can keep Fisher down.

My Pick: Fisher, knockout. Round 1.

* Dan Miller (9-1-1) vs. Matt Horwich (24-9-1)

Miller has better technical jui-jitsu and is a better striker. Horwich is very unpredictable and does some weird stuff on the ground. This one will be on the ground and probably draw some boo-birds out, but will be entertaining on the ground.

My Pick: Miller, Submission. Round 2.

* Hermes Franca (19-7-0) vs. Marcus Aurelio (16-6-0)

I hope to hell this fight gets on the broadcast. This is a classic student versus teacher matchup with Franca needing a win and his former instructor Aurelio in the path. Franca's a crazy striker with a legit BJJ Blackbelt, so he's dangerous standing or on the ground. Aurelio made Takanori Gomi look like he'd never fought before as he dominated and choked him out at PRIDE - Bushido 10 in under five minutes. Sadly, that may have been his finest hour. He has lost four of his last six, with wins of Ryan Roberts and Luke Caudillo. Roberts hasn't fought since, Caudillo lost the three he's had, so the quality of competition isn't there. Franca has lost his last two, but to Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, and has wins over Spencer Fisher (TKO) and Nate Diaz (armbar).

My Pick: Franca, knockout. Round 2.

* Josh Burkman (20-6-0) vs. Pete Sell (7-4-0)

After starting out 5-0; "Drago" Sell has lost four of his last five. Then again, Burkman has lost three of four. I expect this to be the worst fight of the night, and unlike Franca/Aurelio, I hope this doesn't make it to the broadcast, unless it's some insane Burkman knockout (like the Sam Morgan slam on TUF2 Finale) that puts Pete back on Long Island.

My Pick: Burkman, knockout. Round 3.

* May Not Be Broadcast

UFC 88 - I was 6-3

My predictions and picks ended up not too bad. I really debated the Evans/Liddell call (I picked Chuck) and the Henderson/Palhares (Palhares was my choice) but have no complaints with how things turned out. Had I gone with my heart I'd have been 8-1! If Kayo hadn't hurt his back I'd have been 9-1 ... but I did get two of the fights by the round and method of victory.

As far as the Iceman goes ... damn. All I could say was "WOW" ... Evans hit him with a perfectly timed, perfectly aimed anvil-disguised as a punch. Liddell went down faster than a crack-whore in a hail storm. Dude was knocked the fuck out and was motionless for about a minute; woozy for several others. It was one of the most amazing knockouts I've ever seen, perfectly done by a very well-trained Rashad Evans (Greg Jackson Fight Camp is +2 against The Pit ... Keith Jardine also has a victory over Liddell).

Henderson fought a very smart fight and avoided the ground as much as possible although it was close for a bit there in the first.

The rest of the night pretty much went as I expected it. Joe Rogan is getting flack for saying he thought Matt Brown should have won against Dong Hyun Kim, but I think that's Joe being a UFC homer and wanting the UFC discovered Ultimate Fighter stars to win.

Next up - Ultimate Fight Night to kick off the Ultimate Fighter on Wednesday, 9/17; then a busy October with the Affliction card on 10/11; UFC 89 on October 18 free on Spike and UFC 90 on October 25 live in Chicago.

UFC 88 - Preview & Pics

My UFC Preview is back with a vengeance. The Ultimate Fighting Championships invade Atlanta for UFC 88. Here's my take on how the ten scheduled fights are going to play out. Actual mileage may vary.

Chuck Liddell (21-5-0) vs Rashad Evans (16-0-1)
Three of Liddell's five losses ended with him looking up at the lights, knocked the fuck out, due to his desire to stand and throw. Evans has three victories by knockout. Chuck has 13. I see leather. Lots of leather. I see Rashad getting dazed and confused by the counterpuncher.
Liddell by knockout, second round.

Rich Franklin (25-3-0) vs Matt Hamill ( 6-1-0)
Rich Franklin is at a crossroads. He's been demolished by middleweight champ Anderson Silva, twice, in brutal fashion. There's no way he's going to dethrone Forrest Griffen at light heavyweight, and he;s too big to go down to welterweight. So he's left to languish high on the card but not at the top. Matt Hamill is still a work in progress. He's strong, like Silva, and will manhandle Franklin, but can he take a punch? That's the real worry, but not that big of a worry. Franklin is fighting for paychecks now, Hamill is hungrier.
Hamill by decision.

Karo Parisyan (26-5-0) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2-0)
Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a stud. Karo will need a full tank and a better gameplan than he's had in his last couple of outings (loss to Thiago Alves via KO and a decision win against Ryo Chonan). While I don't see Yoshida slapping the anaconda choke on Parisyan like he did with Jon "War Hammer" Koppenhaver, leaving the TUF alum passed out on the cage floor at UFC 84, I do see a great match between the judo of Parisyan and the unconventional style of Yoshida.
Yoshida with his wicked elbows in the third round.

Dan Henderson (22-7-0) vs Rousimar Palhares (17-1-0)
I'm a huge Dan Henderson fan. Palhares has mad ju-jitsu and put a clinic on against Ivan Salaverry, going from a left-armed choke to a right-armed choke to the arm bar that retired Salaverry ... all in 2:36. He's fast, and if he can get Henderson down, and keep him there, it's over. Henderson, however, is a world-class greco-roman wrestler (was in two Olympics and and has won countless international events), so he's difficult to take down. Didn't stop Anderson Silva though. My heart is with Henderson, but my head isn't.
Palhares by submission, third round.

Martin Kampmann (13-1-0) vs Nate Marquardt (29-8-2)
This one will bring down the boos but could be the technical match of the night. Both are submission specialists but Marquardt has the more impressive list of victims including Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Joe Doerksen, Ivan Salaverry and a half-dozen submission wins in Pancrase bouts, including breaking the arm of Kazou Misaki 29 seconds into the bout.
Marquardt via compound fracture in the second round.

Thiago Tavares (17-2-0) vs Kurt Pellegrino (17-4-0)
Both fighters are 1-2 in thier last three bouts. Tavares was knocked out by Matt Wiman at UFC 85; Pellegrino tapped out to Nathan Diaz's triangle choke. Recovering from a your first knockout is always tough.
Pellegrino, submission, first round.

Tim Boetsch (7-2-0) vs Michael Patt (15-2-0)
Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (look at him and you'll see why) needs to win or he's likely done in the UFC after a loss to Matt Hamill (KO, round 2). Patt is making his UFC debut and has beaten a list of no-names in a series of unknown and failed promotions (Bodog, VFC, ETC).
Boetsch by KO, first round.

Dong Hyun Kim (10-0-1) vs Matt Brown (10-6-0)
Dong Hyun Kim is a star in the making and will impress. There's a huge thread on Sherdog about how bad this beating is going to be. Despite Matt Brown being on TUF, and a nice guy who hung out at BW3's in Columbus during the season to watch the show, in the cage he is a mystery. He looks so good one minute, then his brain is beamed into space and he's a human punching bag for the next several. Then he recovers. And looks great. Apply, lather, rinse, repeat. His fight against Amir Sadollah in the semi-finals of The Ultimate Fighter showed that, but he was fighting with a very injured shoulder. Regardless ... five of Brown's six losses are via submission, but there's not much for him to fear from Kim in that respect ... Kim has one. Kim likes to stand and throw, which Brown likes as well, but Matt needs to watch out for the slam that Kim used to knock out Hasegawa (who was the champ in a non-title bout) at DEEP 31 (YouTube brings the pain at the 9:40 mark!) and his fast, furious and heavy hands ... look at the beating he delivers AFTER the slam and the diving save the ref makes. That was a statement.
Kim via strikes in the second round.

Jason Lambert (23-8-0) vs Jason MacDonald (21-10-0)
I love MacDonald for exposing Ed Herman, but hate his nickname (The Athlete). And he lost to Kalib Starnes. Jason Lambert, The Punisher, has a much better nickname, but has lost three of his last four fights ... and was punished and knocked out. But he KTFO'd Renato Sobral and Terry Martin, so he has the power to do it against MacDonald. This is a tough one to call, but MacDonald is better at submissions (16 of his wins).
MacDonald, submission, in the second.

Roan Carneiro (12-7-0) vs Ryo "Piranha" Chonan (14-8-0)
I love Ryo Chonan, if for nothing else than for the beating he took from Anderson Silva before submitting him with an AMAZING flying sccissor heel hook at Pride Shockwave 2004. Check it out ... this is beautiful, and from the speed of the tapout and the look on Silva's face, pretty painful, too. Roan Carneiro is at a make or break stage with the UFC. He's 2-2 having lost to Jon Fitch and Kevin Burns, both via submission.
Chonan, with PRIDE, submission, first round.

Check back Monday to see how well I did, or join me Saturday at UFC 88 as I watch from BW3's on Campus View. UFC starts at 10; Music Trivia starts at 8:30.

UFC 79 - Nemesis - Preview & Predictions

As per my usual, I'll be at BW3's in Austintown watching UFC 79 on Saturday. if you're looking for something to do, swing by. If you're not an MMA fan, come get schooled. I've been a fan for going on five years now, moreso of the now defunct PRIDE organization, but haven't missed a UFC since 40.

Mark Bocek vs Doug Evans - Bocek, submission.
Jiu-Jitsu beats striking and wrestling, especially since Evans isn't a master of either.

Roan Carneiro vs Tony DeSouza - Carneiro, submission.
Carneiro is training with American Top Team, DeSouza's not fought since 2006 and has a suspect chin he covers with a wild beard ... and he's easily cut (two of his three losses are due to cuts).

Jordan Radev vs Dean Lister - Lister, submission.
Lister is a multiple ADCC champion, Olympic wrestler and has been working strong on striking. Radev's intro by Bruce Buffer was longer than his last fight, as it took was last seen getting KTFO'ed in 33 seconds by Drew McFedries in June.

Nate Mohr vs Manny Gamburyan - Gamburyan, decision.
Gamburyan is short and stocky and not known as a finisher. Mohr is a striker. Gamburyan was beating devastating striker Nate Diaz before separating his shoulder in The Ultimate Fighter 5 finale and can take a shot.

Luis Cane vs James Irvin - Cane, TKO, knees.
Irvin, a.k.a. The Sandman, can knock anybody out with his fist of death, but Cane will take this one. Like most Brazilians he has mad jiu-jitsu and knees that do big damage, and solid strikes with his fists, too. If it goes to the ground, Irvin's out of his element.

Soa Palelei vs Eddie Sanchez - Sanchez, strikes.
Palelei's had one fight in three years - it lasted 5 seconds. He's huge - 6'4" and 265. Sanchez hung with Cro-Cop for nearly a round before the fight was stopped. And he hurt Cro-Cop, too. I see Sanchez getting KO #6, early.

Rich Clementi vs Melvin Guillard - Guillard, strikes.
Clementi's great on the ground, but Guillard has fists that come fast and furious and with bad intentions. And these two dudes don't like each other, as Joe Rogan will tell us, over and over.

Lyoto Machida vs Sokoudjou - Sokoudjo, strikes.
I watched in stunned silence, as did most everyone else who was a fan of PRIDE, when Sokoudjou knocked out Antonio Rogerio Noqueira (Lil 'Nog) in 23 secods at Pride 33. Six weeks later battered Ricardo Arona in two minutes. The African Assassin is now training with Team Quest. Machida is a great technician, but so are both Nogueira and Arona, and neither could find their game before the punches came.

Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva - Silva, strikes.
Silva has beaten Quinton Jackson, twice. Jackson has beaten Liddell, twice. Liddell has lost his last two fights (Jackson knocked him out in 1:53; and a split decision to Keith Jardine in which he was solidly rocked). Silva has lost his last two fights, both by highlight knockouts (Dan Henderson demolished him at Pride 33; and in the Open Weight GP in 2006 he was another victim of Cro-Cop's head kick). The difference - Silva has taken 8 months off, taken his time, learned from his losses. Liddell has taken fight after fight as soon as he could. My only concern for Silva is how will he handle being in a cage for the first time since 2000's five-round decision loss to Tito Ortiz. However, I see Silva teeing off on Liddell, often, and in tight, as his his style. With knees, elbows and fists flying. I see Chuck either retiring or taking serious time off in 2008 to regroup, as Silva did in 2007.

Matt Hughes vs Georges St-Pierre - St-Pierre, knockout.
St-Pierre took this fight after Matt Serra's serious back injury, and it's for the interim welterweight title. I don't see how this late in his MMA career Hughes can go from being a dominating wrestler to anything else. St-Pierre is the most well-rounded MMA fighter, ever. He can wrestle, strike, evade and work the ground. He dominated Hughes when he took the title in November 2006, knocking him out in the second round with a knee Hughes said he had no idea hit him. Hughes doesn't have the all around ability to defend himself. St-Pierre has continued to evolve and will be the dominant welterweight moving forward, as Hughes was for five years prior to his loss to GSP.

Oh yes, he did.

Ladies and Gentlemen ... the winner, by knockout at 1:53 of the very first round .... and NEW UFC Light Heavyweight Champion ...

Quinton "Rampage Jackson

(I was 1-for-4 on the other picks, but I got Rampage right!)

Next up for Rampage ... a MAJOR confrontation with Pride Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Dan "Hollywood" Henderson to see who the best 205-pound MMA fighter in the world is.

What's funny - six months ago everyone was expecting Chuck Liddell and Vanderlai Silva to be the two in that dream matchup.

Funny how things change.

UFC 71 ... join me at BW3's

Soooo .... if you're bored on Saturday ... I'll be at the BW3's in Austintown watching UFC 71 ... where Quinton "Rampage" Jackson *should* take the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship off of Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell.

WHAT?

Yeah, I said it. I see Chuck going down.

For some of the same reasons that Rampage demolished Liddell in 2003 when they fought in Pride's 2003 Middleweight GP Semi-Finals (Pride considers the 205-pound weight class Middleweight; UFC considers it Light Heavyweight). Rampage took Liddell to task ... he beat his ass. Rampage is a top-notch striker who can take the fury from Chuck as he works his way inside for the trademark Rampage Slam. Just like he did in Japan.

I see that happening again.

Because Rampage is deep inside Chuck's head ... and so is Chuck's hype.

Chuck wants revenge for the only loss he has yet to avenge. He's been unstoppablesince the loss to Rampage ... and has avenged two of his three losses (Randy Couture and Jeremy Horn) and has been pretty much invincible ... and he's the poster child of the UFC ... on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and all the sports talk shows ... everyone talking about how great he is ... all of which leads to over confidence.

The four other fights on the main event card also have some great match-ups, too:

Terry Martin Vs. Ivan Salaverry
Match-up of two old-timers ... Salaverry is hit or miss ... he's either really good or really bland. Terry Martin can stone cold knock a bitch out. I see Salaverry getting KTFO'd, unless he can get Martin down and submit him. Nope, Martin. KO.

Josh Burkman Vs. Karo Parisyan
This is my choice for the show-stealer ... Karo "The Heat" versus "The People's Warrior." I have no idea which way this will go ... Burkman's a fighter, but Parisyan is a Judo master who can throw Buicks if needed. Styles make fights ... and I see Parisyan trying to stand with Burkman, which is a bad idea. Why? Well, here's a highlight from Burkman's Q&A:

Q: What is your favorite technique?
A: Punching people in the face."

Houston Alexander Vs. Keith Jardine
Jardine ... who was knicknamed "KlanMan" by Rebecca and I when he was on the Ultimate Fighter (he has that White Supremacist look about him). His opponent is a black man from East St. Louis, IL ... where race is a way of life. Alexander is making his UFC debut, but he is 6-1 in his MMA career. I see Jardine putting a beating on Alexander like he did Forrest Griffin in what yet another surprise in what has been an eventful year for favorites in the UFC. Alexander likes to punch, so this will be a stand-up war until someone falls down.

Kalib Starnes Vs. Chris Leben
I'm no fan of Chris Leban and his mouth writing checks his body can't cash, but at least he's not a whiny bitch like Kalib "I broke my rib" Starnes. I see Leban beating down Starnes like the whiny bitch he is. And I see Starnes crying all the way back to Canada, while Leban runs his mouth until his next beatdown against real competition.

There ... now we'll find out Sunday if I was right or wrong! Or ... Saturday ... if you're joining me.

There can be only one

Well, looks like I was wrong, again.

UFC just bought PrideFC for about $70 million. Story here.

On one hand, that means all the best fighters belong to the UFC.

On the other hand, I'd so much prefer a ring to a cage.

Then again, I liked Betamax, too.

Randy Couture is AMAZING

Captain America strikes again.

Randy Couture, at age 43, totally dominated Tim Sylvia for 25 minutes. Sylvia is bigger (6'7" to 6'2"); heavier (263 lbs to 222 lbs); and had a 12.5" reach advantage (72" to 84.5").

Numbers meant nothing in this fight as Couture spent the entire fight beating Sylvia's ass all over the Octagon in Nationwide Arena in Columbus.

Couture said he saw holes in Sylvia's game.

He was right.

He beat him black and blue.

Closed his eye.

Took his belt.

All three judges saw Couture win all five rounds - 50-45.

At age 43.

Beat. His. Ass.

I love technology. Really.

So I'm the PBOC this week (that's primary bitch on call) ... and it's been an interesting week.

But also, tonight, Saturday night, is a UFC fight. And I loves me some mixed martial arts.

But I'm not paying $40 to buy it and watch alone, at home, when I can spend half that, have a crowd in the room, and get fed.

So I took my phone, my laptop and my MMA lovin' ass to BW3's in Austintown because they have big screen TV's, damn good food, decent beer (Blue Moon on tap) and Wi-Fi access.

And yep, I'm here. Plugged in, connected to the office, with the phone, at the ready, waiting to solve the world's problems while watching the ass-kicking that is the UFC.

Yeah, I love technology.

Geek-boy - OUT.

Pride 33 - ROCKED!

WOW ... not sure if you're a fan of MMA or not, but the Pride 33 show was AMAZING. There were some unreal fights ...

If you're a fan of the KO, do yourself a favor and watch these clips:

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Vs Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Dan Henderson vs. Vanderlai Silva

If you're a fan of the submission, check this out: Knockout artist Nick Diaz vs Lightweight Champ Takanori Gomi

Random MMA Thoughts

As you may know, I'm a huge mixed-martial arts fan. I started watching UFC after finding a bunch of old shows online, the stumbled upon Pride Fighting Championships - the only real parallel to UFC in the fighting world today.

Pride, based in Japan, is different in that they use a ring, not a cage; and have different rules for different weight classes. They also feature some of the best fighters in the world most UFC fans have never heard of - Takadori Gomi - the best 155 pound fighter in the world, and Fedor Emelianenko, the best heavyweight MMA fighter on the planet.

On December 30th, both Pride and the UFC had year-ending events, Pride Shockwave 2006 and UFC 66.

I've now watched both and have to say PrideFC's Shockwave show was significantly better than UFC 66 - although Keith Jardine's beatdown KO of Forrest Griffin was rather unexpected.

But like always, the hype factor nearly killed my enjoyment of both.

UFC is a three hour show featuring 2 hours of hype. PrideFC is a three hour show featuring 20 minutes of hype. Granted, PrideFC has the ability to edit out the ring entrances, and ring exits, as the North American broadcasts are tape-delayed due to a time difference, but there's a whole lot more fighting in every PrideFC show than any UFC show, live, DVD or tape delay.

But PrideFC is, unfortunately, learning the hype game, too.

In Canada, put two teams on the ice for a hockey match and people will watch. In Japan, put two fighters in a ring, and people will watch. In America, we need our entertainment spoon-fed to us, in digestible doses, mixed with multiple reminders to watch what's next because we all have ADD.

Because of that, PrideFC is really, really, really pushing the return to Las Vegas on February 24th ... and apparently Vanderlia "The Axe Murderer" Silva is fighting. I say apparently because they mentioned that fact BETWEEN EVERY SINGLE FIGHT ... and sometimes during the fights as well. And I love me some Vanderlia, but really, we get it.

Really.

Then again, the way PrideFC is bleeding talent right now, who else can they advertise that they know they'll have come the end of February?

But bleeding talent isn't always a bad thing.

Mirco "Cro-Cop" Flipovic and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson signed UFC deals. But are those really big losses? I don't think so. Cro-Cop has shown he can't beat Fedor; Jackson has shown he can't beat Silva. So essentially, stay in Japan as the second-best guy in your weight class or give the UFC a try? This will not only create more opportunity for the two of them, but for give the UFC new matches to try, and free up the second spot in Pride for new shoes to fill.

Perhap's Pride's biggest loss could be Fedor Emelianenko - the current heavyweight champ - who has signed to fight with Bodog. Should he lose the Pride belt, and fight only for the up and coming Bodog, on the surface, that's a huge hole to fill.

But is it really? No. First, he's beaten everyone but Josh Barnett. Everyone.

Second, Emelianenko looked lackluster in his defense against Mark Hunt at Shockwave 2006. Granted, Hunt - a K1 veteran who has perhaps the hardest head since Cabbage "My head is filled with cement and junk" Carerra - had just seven MMA fights coming into the bout, but Hunt looked significantly better on the ground since his loss to Josh "The Baby Faced Assassin" Barnett in the semi-finals of the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix and nearly submitted the champ. In fact, it wasn't until about halfway through the opening 10-minute round that Emelianenko came to life - after he was bleeding from the nose; after Hunt took him down, twice, and after Hunt nearly submitted him. It was not the same Fedor who demolished the field in years past.

Now for the UFC show - I'll admit to fast-forwarding through the hype and just watching the fights ... and the fights were good, for the most part. Nothing as mind-numbing as the Tim Sylvia / Jeff Monson five-round snoozefest; but nothing as spectacular as Rich Franklin being demolished by Anderson Silvia or the (well-deserved) beatdown Matt Hughes received from Georges St. Pierre, either.

As I said, Griffin getting KTFO'ed was quite unexpected. Tito losing (again) to Chuck Liddell was in the cards.

But the UFC hype of Cro-Cop was legendary. But they're giving him a total bag of pucks to fight in his first UFC battle. Granted, he'll need that to get used to fighting in the cage, but Eddie Friggin Sanchez? Cro-Cop gets Cake-Walk.

The most disappointing factor? Someone as good as Quinton "Rampage" Jackson is on the mic - and he can cut some killer promos - he was nowhere near one.

That'll leave a mark. Especially with GSP out for his fight against Matt Serra.

Until next month's MMA update .... peace, love and elbows.